Reference appendix
Volatility & statistics
Measures of how much — and how erratically — price is moving, plus the general statistical tools the other indicators are built from.
How these fit together
Almost everything on this page traces back to two measurements. Standard deviation is the engine inside Bollinger Bands, regression channels, historical volatility and the Relative Volatility Index. Average true range is the engine inside Keltner channels, STARC bands and Supertrend — and it is also the bridge between analysis and risk, since the same number that widens a channel is the one that sets a stop and a position size. None of these say anything about direction, which is the point: they describe how rough the ride is, and volatility clusters, so quiet stretches tend to precede violent ones in either direction.
- Standard deviation feeds Bollinger Bands, regression channels and historical volatility
- ATR feeds Keltner, STARC and Supertrend — and sets stop distance and position size
- HV = what happened · IV = what is priced; the gap between them is the options trade
- Divide ATR by price before comparing volatility across different securities
- Compression precedes expansion — the statistical version of a Bollinger squeeze
- None of these indicate direction — pair them with anything from Trend & direction
Average true range
ATRdefinedThe average “true range” (which accounts for gaps between sessions) over a lookback period — a straightforward measure of how much a security typically moves, used for setting stop-losses and position sizing as much as for reading trend.
Historical volatility
HVdefinedThe standard deviation of past price returns, usually annualized, showing how much a security has actually moved historically.
Implied volatility
IVdefinedThe level of future volatility the options market is pricing in, backed out from current options prices rather than measured from past price action.
Chaikin volatility
Chaikin VoluntestedTracks the rate of change of an EMA of the high-low trading range, flagging when the range is expanding (rising volatility) or contracting (falling volatility).
High-low volatility
HL VoldefinedA simpler volatility reading based directly on the size of the high-low range each period.
Standard deviation
Std. Dev.definedA statistical measure of how spread out prices are from their average — the core building block behind Bollinger Bands, regression channels, and several other indicators here.
Standard deviation volatility
Std. Dev. VoldefinedTracks how the standard deviation of price itself changes over time — a volatility-of-volatility style reading.
Relative volatility index
RVI (vol.)untestedNot to be confused with the Relative Vigor Index above — this applies the RSI calculation to standard deviation instead of price changes, producing an RSI-style 0–100 volatility reading.
Spearman
SpearmandefinedA rank-correlation statistic applied to price and time, used to gauge how consistently a trend has been moving in one direction — a trend-strength measure borrowed from statistics.
Percent change
% ChangedefinedThe simple percentage change in price from the start to the end of a selected period.
Daily open-close
Open-ClosedefinedPlots each session's opening and closing prices directly, so you can see at a glance whether a session closed higher or lower than it opened.
Level 2
L2definedReal-time order book data showing the bid and ask prices and sizes waiting at multiple price levels — market depth rather than a chart overlay — used to gauge near-term supply and demand.
How to read the evidence tag
Every entry here carries one of three tags. The tag rates the evidence behind the claim the entry makes — not how popular the tool is, how old it is, or how confident the people teaching it sound. Close to half of the entries on this site sit on the weakest tier — including every one of the eighteen Smart Money Concepts, which are drawn here in the same ink as Wilder’s ADX and deserve to be told apart from it. That is the honest position rather than an oversight.
- defined33 entries
True by arithmetic. This entry describes a calculation or a piece of terminology, and makes no claim about what price will do next. Nothing here can be wrong except a typo.
- studied56 entries
The predictive claim attached to this entry has been tested in peer-reviewed research. Being on this tier does not mean it works — across the literature these edges are typically small, unstable between markets and periods, and often gone after costs.
- untested87 entries
Widely taught and widely believed, but no published test of the claim was located while building this page. Treat it as a description of what traders do, not as evidence that doing it pays.
The line between studied and untested is drawn by whether a peer-reviewed test of the specific claim could be found, and those tests are listed on the Sources page under “Evidence and base rates”. If you know of a published test of something tagged untested, the tag is wrong and should change — that is the point of labelling it at all.