Not advice Educational reference only — nothing here predicts a price. What the measured outcomes are · Sources

Reading a chart

Candle patterns

Shapes formed by one to five candles, read as a snapshot of who is winning the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Every one of them is a probability at best: they carry weight only in the right context, and traders generally wait for the following candle to confirm before acting.

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How these fit together

These patterns are all variations on one question: over the last one to five periods, who had control, and did they keep it? The number of candles is roughly the amount of evidence — a single candle is a hint, two candles are a pattern, three are a sequence — and the same shape can mean opposite things depending on what came before it. Location does most of the work: a pattern that forms at a level something else already marked, such as a neckline, a trendline or the 200-day average, is treated as far more significant than the identical shape in the middle of a range.

  • Hammer and hanging man are identical shapes — only the preceding trend tells them apart, and the same is true of the shooting star and inverted hammer
  • Engulfing → piercing / dark cloud → harami — the same story in decreasing order of strength
  • One candle = hint · two = pattern · three = sequence, generally in increasing order of reliability
  • Pattern + chart-shape level → a hammer on a double-bottom low is worth much more than a hammer anywhere else
  • Pattern + volume above average → confirmation; on thin volume most of these mean very little
  • With the trend beats against it — counter-trend reversal patterns fail far more often

Bullish patterns

10

Shapes suggesting sellers are running out of steam and price may turn up. They matter after a real decline — the same shape mid-range means very little.

Bullish1 / 10

Faded candles show what came before it.

Bullishstudied

Hammer

After a decline, a small body sits at the top of a long lower wick: sellers drove price way down and buyers hauled it all the way back. The longer the lower wick relative to the body, the stronger the signal.

Studied. This claim has been tested in published research. The measured edges are small, change between markets and periods, and often disappear once trading costs are counted.

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Bearish patterns

10

Shapes suggesting buyers are exhausted and price may turn down. Same caveat in reverse: these count after a run-up, and confirmation beats acting on the shape alone.

Bearish1 / 10

Faded candles show what came before it.

Bearishstudied

Hanging man

The same shape as a hammer — small body, long lower wick — but appearing after a rally instead of a decline. Sellers were able to push price hard mid-period, a warning that the uptrend is getting fragile.

Studied. This claim has been tested in published research. The measured edges are small, change between markets and periods, and often disappear once trading costs are counted.

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Indecision & continuation

6

Neither side in control, or a trend pausing before it resumes. Mostly these are the shapes that argue for waiting rather than acting.

Indecision & continuation1 / 6
Indecisionstudied

Doji

Open and close are nearly identical, leaving a cross. Buyers and sellers fought to a draw — meaningful mainly at the end of a strong move, where a stalemate suggests the trend is running out of fuel.

Studied. This claim has been tested in published research. The measured edges are small, change between markets and periods, and often disappear once trading costs are counted.

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How to read the evidence tag

Every entry here carries one of three tags. The tag rates the evidence behind the claim the entry makes — not how popular the tool is, how old it is, or how confident the people teaching it sound. Close to half of the entries on this site sit on the weakest tier — including every one of the eighteen Smart Money Concepts, which are drawn here in the same ink as Wilder’s ADX and deserve to be told apart from it. That is the honest position rather than an oversight.

  • defined33 entries

    True by arithmetic. This entry describes a calculation or a piece of terminology, and makes no claim about what price will do next. Nothing here can be wrong except a typo.

  • studied56 entries

    The predictive claim attached to this entry has been tested in peer-reviewed research. Being on this tier does not mean it works — across the literature these edges are typically small, unstable between markets and periods, and often gone after costs.

  • untested87 entries

    Widely taught and widely believed, but no published test of the claim was located while building this page. Treat it as a description of what traders do, not as evidence that doing it pays.

The line between studied and untested is drawn by whether a peer-reviewed test of the specific claim could be found, and those tests are listed on the Sources page under “Evidence and base rates”. If you know of a published test of something tagged untested, the tag is wrong and should change — that is the point of labelling it at all.