Time series forecast
Plots the endpoint of a linear regression line calculated over a moving window — essentially projecting where price “should” be if the recent trend continued.
What the numbers mean
The lookback is the number of bars fitted by the linear regression whose endpoint gets plotted. A short setting hugs price and re-aims constantly; a long one describes the broader trend line and moves slowly.
- 14 — common default; the number of bars the regression is fitted through
- 21 or 50 — describes the broader trend and moves more slowly
- The plotted point is the regression's endpoint, not an average — which is why it sits closer to price than a moving average of the same length
How it is used
Used as a moving average with less lag — because it plots the regression's endpoint rather than an average of the window, it sits closer to current price — and as the reference the Forecast Oscillator measures against.
- Used as a lower-lag substitute for a moving average
- Crossovers with price are read as trend changes
- Supplies the projection the Forecast Oscillator measures actual price against
How it relates to everything else
TSF, the linear regression curve, and a moving average all answer the question “where should price be right now?” with different arithmetic. TSF is the least laggy of the three because it extends the fitted line rather than averaging the window — which also makes it the most confidently wrong at turning points.
- Less lag than an SMA of the same period; more prone to overshoot
- Paired with FOSC, which plots the gap between projection and reality
- Its slope is what the linear regression slope indicator plots separately
What to watch for
It extends a straight line from recent data and nothing more. Around turning points the projection points confidently in exactly the wrong direction.